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[JorgeA]

Hi Bitman,

I hear you. Most of the sales growth, today and in the coming years, will come in the tablet and smartphone areas. Certainly they're getting the lion's share of media attention. (And I didn't realize, but it makes sense, that the data carriers' subsidizing the upfront cost of mobile devices distorts the results.)

But I'm not so down (not yet, anyway) on the prospects for desktop PCs. Had to do a bit of digging on the Web, as actual figures (as opposed to predictions) seem to be hard to find, but here are some reasons to stay optimistic.

BTW, had it not been for your help, I wouldn't have known what they meant by the ASP, or its significance.

@GopherJohn -- I wouldn't dream of doing my banking or paying my bills through a smartphone!

--JorgeA

[bitman]

Hi Jorge,

Yes, those articles do seem to indicate a picture of growth for at least the business segment, though my main focus above was on the consumer segment.

However, if you know the history of business purchasing in this segment then you recognize that buying while in an economic downturn is a common cost saving measure when the cash is available. So likely the recession has driven some sales as a result of both price reduction by manufacturers as well as the beginnings of business growth by some SMBs and the normal replacement cycles for older systems. We should point out that though they separate tablets and specialty devices like netbooks and thin clients, those articles don't specify whether a desktop PC is an all-in-one or the classic 'box' style we're discussing here, so all of these are lumped into the same desktop category. Also note that the desktops showed the lowest rate of growth, while the netbooks and thin clients which are really the equivalent replacements for desktops each showed larger growth. It's also interesting to note that when the Y2K 'bug' caused a huge increase in sales in the late 1990's, the entire computer industry was caught off guard when the PC sales market crashed in 2000, so they're really not very good at predicting the economic factors that effect themselves and instead tend to look for the rosy picture just like everyone else.

The pressures I was discussing above are more prevelent in the consumer market, where techonology is more of a 'toy' for many then a necessity and so is driven more by the 'fun factor' related to the device. It's also tended to be more affected by the younger crowd, who's generally smaller incomes and more mobile lifestyles have led to the popularity of these smaller portable devices. Their generation will actually drive the move away from the PC, since both their early use of cell phones/texting and comfort level with smaller more portable devices will affect their later technology choices. It's already killing the FM radio market and significantly affecting other much longer term markets than the desktop PC.

Along with what we've already discussed above, the larger screen issue that Gopher John mentioned is also a factor, though I'm currently writing this on a laptop while looking at a second externally attached 22' screen using a full sized USB keyboard and bluetooth mouse. The main laptop screen is reserved for Outlook business email and other utility functions such as remote consoles for the Internet based servers I manage, while the larger screen is used for browsing and any larger virtual server screens.

However, I also have a smartphone that doubles as my portable email, calendar and (text message) alerting device as well as for GPS mapping while traveling, though I use few of its other features regularly. I only web browse on it when my other systems aren't available (e.g. in a store, etc.), but I'm no more afraid to use it for banking than any of my PC systems. My bank provides a very effective and simple mobile web site and an optional application that even allows the deposit of checks via a photo taken by the phone, so no full screen PC application is required.

My next planned purchase is to replace the laptop with a Windows tablet, since I require that OS for some business applications, but wish to have a smaller, lighter device to take on site for maintenance. I still plan to use an external bluetooth keyboard and mouse when in my home based office and may need to get an HDMI monitor since that's the more common connector on these newer devices.

I do still have a Media PC I purchased 2+ years ago in my entertainment center, but that will likely be my last desktop and is itself a more component sized system designed to lay flat, again using a bluetooth keyboard and mouse. I just finally got rid of the 10-year old Windows XP based Compaq (small form-factor) desktop business system last month.

I fully expect to see the older, less mobile consumer with failing eyes (myself included) continue to use a full-sized screen. However, since my Media PC does this well with my older 46" TV, it will do this even better with the larger screen I intend to purchase next. Simply replace the Media PC with any of the browser or application capable TV (really monitor) based systems now becoming available and most of a typical consumer's needs will be covered without ever leaving the living room.

Bitman